Thailand‘s headline inflation rose 2.42% year on year in June, marking a third consecutive month in positive territory, as higher fuel costs and rising food prices continue to squeeze household budgets across the country.
The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) under the Ministry of Commerce reported that the consumer price index reached 102.85 in June, driven primarily by elevated domestic fuel prices linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, higher public transport fares, and a broad increase in the cost of prepared food.
Core inflation, which strips out fresh food and energy, accelerated to 1.23% in June, up from 0.92% in May. For the first half of 2026, headline inflation averaged 1.08% while core inflation averaged 0.79%.
Street food takes the hit
A TPSO survey of 1,535 food stalls across the country found that seven of Thailand’s most popular single-plate dishes have risen by 5 to 10 baht per serving.
The meals tracked in the survey, which typically range from 35 to 60 baht, include fried rice, pad see ew and rad na noodles, red pork rice, chicken rice (khao man gai), som tam, noodle soup, and holy basil stir-fry over rice (pad kra pao).
According to the TPSO, vendors did not raise prices all at once. Many absorbed higher input costs during the first one to two months of the Middle East conflict.
But as hostilities dragged on and costs continued to climb, sellers gradually adjusted prices province by province until the increases became widespread. The office noted that, characteristically, once food prices go up they tend to stay up even when input costs fall.
Q3 outlook: more of the same
TPSO Deputy Director General Nattiya Sujinda said inflation is expected to remain elevated in the third quarter, with the office forecasting a year-on-year rate of 2.79%.
Upward pressure is expected from persistently high fuel prices, continued restructuring of domestic retail fuel pricing, widening food price increases, higher public transport costs, and rising vegetable prices. The potential impact of El Niño on agricultural output is an additional risk factor that authorities are monitoring closely.
On the downside, electricity tariffs for May to August are running slightly below last year’s levels, and meat prices are expected to ease as supply remains adequate.
Global oil prices also carry some downside potential following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though the TPSO cautioned that it remains unclear whether that improvement will hold.
Full-year forecast maintained at 1.5 to 2.5%
The Ministry of Commerce is maintaining its full-year 2026 inflation forecast in the range of 1.5% to 2.5%, with a midpoint of 2.0%. The projection assumes GDP growth of 1.5% to 2.5%, Dubai crude oil prices of US$80 to US$90 per barrel, and an exchange rate of 32 to 33 baht per US dollar.
The ministry said it would revisit the forecast if oil prices decline significantly.
Permanent Secretary for Commerce Wuthikrai Leeweeraphun has instructed provincial commerce offices to monitor food pricing closely and to intervene where increases appear excessive.
The government’s Thai Chuay Thai Plus stimulus programme, the TPSO added, does not directly affect inflation figures but is intended to boost consumers’ purchasing power.
Source: Thairath, 6 July 2026. Translated and adapted for an international audience.
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