MANILA, Philippines — No Chinese navy warships were monitored in four key areas of the West Philippine Sea from Aug. 18 to 24, according to the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).
The AFP spotted 16 Chinese vessels in the four areas during the week, but all were China Coast Guard (CCG) ships and none were from the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).
Of the 16 CCG vessels, 11 were monitored at Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal, four at Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal and one at Pag-asa (Thitu) Island.
No Chinese vessels were monitored at Escoda (Sabina) Shoal.
Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad (Reserve), spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, cautioned against drawing conclusions from the figures, saying the AFP needs a longer period of monitoring to determine whether the absence of PLAN warships indicates a broader change.
“We need a longer time frame to be able to assess,” Trinidad said in a press briefing at Camp Aguinaldo in Quezon City.
The AFP releases its monitoring figures weekly but conducts assessments over longer periods, usually at least one month or six months, Trinidad said.
He said the AFP would still need to assess why no PLAN warships were monitored in the said period.
Trinidad also declined to comment on whether the zero PLAN presence was related to the anniversary of the Chinese navy, saying the AFP’s focus is on monitoring the PLAN, China Coast Guard and other maritime military forces in the West Philippine Sea.
Weather conditions, including the southwest monsoon or “habagat”, are among the factors that will be considered in assessing the figures, Trinidad said.
But he cautioned that weather affects all types of vessels, including coast guard ships, warships and fishing boats, making it difficult to determine its specific effect on the absence of PLAN warships based on only one week of data.
“That’s part of the factors that we will consider when we do the assessment, but it’s difficult to assess over a one-week time only,” Trinidad said.
Trinidad also could not immediately say whether the Aug. 18 to 24 period was the first week in which no PLAN warships were monitored, saying he would have to check the AFP’s historical data.
“Sometimes it is low, one, two or three,” Trinidad said, referring to weeks when the number of monitored PLAN vessels was relatively low.
He likewise cautioned against immediately linking the absence of PLAN warships to other developments in the country or the region, including the movement of aircraft from a carrier in Asia.
“It is too early to put any correlation to all the developments in country and in the region,” Trinidad said.
“Suffice it to say, the AFP remains forward-looking in protecting our maritime domain and developments on land,” he added.
For now, the zero-PLAN figure is being treated as a weekly monitoring result rather than evidence of a sustained reduction in Chinese naval activity in the West Philippine Sea.
The AFP will need to monitor the area over a longer period before determining whether the absence of PLAN warships was an isolated occurrence or part of a broader trend. /gsg
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