Thailand’s economy grew 1.9% in the second quarter, its slowest in a year.
That is down from 2.8% in the first quarter. It is also better than economists expected, with a Reuters poll before the release pointing to 1.7%.
The National Economic and Social Development Council published the figures on Monday.
Underneath the headline, the quarter splits in two. Exports and private investment did the work, while Households and the government did not.
Private consumption grew 1.9%, down from 3.3% three months earlier.
Consumer confidence fell to 50.3, the lowest reading in 14 quarters. It was last this low at the end of 2022.
Government spending was close to flat at 0.2%, after 3.4% in the first quarter.
Fixed investment grew 9.1%, and private investment inside that grew 13.4%.
Much of it is electronics and AI infrastructure. Data centres and AI servers are being built here, and that spending lands in the investment line.
Exports of goods and services rose 12.5%, about where they sat in the first quarter.
Imports rose faster, at 24.2%, up from 21.4%. That gap pulls the headline number down, because imports are subtracted from it.
Agriculture grew 1.5%, down from 2.0%. Industry grew 1.1% and services 2.4%.
The quarter-on-quarter figure is the one that will draw attention.
Adjusted for seasonality, the economy shrank 0.2% against the first quarter, which has itself been revised to 0.6% growth. Private consumption fell 0.5% on that basis, and government spending fell 2.3%.
One quarter of contraction is not a recession. Two in a row would be.
The export figure comes with a warning attached.
June exports jumped 20.8% year on year, with shipments to the United States up 44.3%. Across the first half, exports rose 17.6%.
Those are not normal numbers. Exporters were shipping early to get ahead of American tariffs, and the Commerce Ministry has said the second half will be slower as a result.
Thailand was hit with one of the highest rates when the new US tariffs landed in July.
Tourism was the other soft spot. Arrivals were held back by geopolitical uncertainty, higher travel costs and weaker spending power in several main source markets.
The council still expects about 35 million visitors this year, against 33 million last year.
Despite all of that, the full-year forecast went up rather than down.
The council now expects growth of 2.0% to 2.5% for 2026, narrowed from a previous range of 1.5% to 2.5%.
The floor moved, not the ceiling. The first half was strong enough to take the worst case off the table, even with weaker momentum going into the second.
For anyone living here, the shape of it is familiar. Factories and foreign buyers are producing the numbers that look healthy, and the numbers that describe daily life, what households earn and what they are willing to spend, are the ones going the wrong way.
Related news
- Thailand’s 2026 GDP outlook firms up on private investment surge
- Bank of Thailand cuts GDP forecast to 1.5%, slashes interest rate to 1%
- Thailand hit with top rate as Trump slaps new tariffs on 60 nations
Sources: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council · Prachatai · Trading Economics, year-on-year · Trading Economics, quarter-on-quarter · Reuters poll of economists
The story Thai economy grows 1.9% in Q2 as households pull back, exports carry it as seen on Thaiger News.
